Nobody nowadays thinks of a 3rd world war possible. At least not
in Europe.
Not even for some megalomaniacs…Don’t be so naïf please!
A war starts always with some small steps! The rest happens usually by
stumbling along!
The first World war started with the “looking for freedom from Austria”
of some people at Bosnia – Herzegowina, one of them murdering the crown prince
of the Austrian ruler, what this one thought he could`nt let go unavenged. The rest
happened afterwards only because of some mutual allegancies, together
with some misestimation of the relative forces, which lead to this war
afterwards.
The second world war had some other reasons: The “winning” alliance from
the first War wanted to expand their influence and thus inflicted the Germans
some overrated “reparations”, causing thus a crisis in Germany, which allowed Hitler to
come to power. They had also clipped off some of Germanys
territory in East – Prussia,
giving thus Hitler the pretext to Invade Poland afterwards.
The rest happened also mainly because of mutual contracts of assistance that
Hitler did`nt take to serious because of his false estimation of the
willingness of the “Entente” to maintain their agreements, and further of the misestimation
of the relative forces.
But after the bankruptcy of the communism and thus the splitting off of
the East – block, - now also the EU tries to extend its influence to the east -
further incited from the USA,
that Europe owes thanks for its rebuilding after
the war tough, but that now shows some airs as “superpotency” and “world police”.
Mr. Putin toke the Krim because of the EU`s trying to extend its
influence over Ukraina, what would have cut off Russias only access to the sea
with its only ever ice – free Marine – Port. Then, naturally with one look to a
map, it is clear that the access to this
port has to be made through East Ukraina.
The EU had better tried to negotiate with Russia, letting that part of
Ukraina to them or better giving to Ukraina but financial help without other
ambitions (and telling this to Putin.) – and without so called “Sanktions” or
“condemnations”, that serve but heating up the climate still more and are to no
avail. Thus Mr Putin would have still something to loose with his economy and
with his status as a civilized European.
But if Putin is pressed to much or made to loose face, he could be
tempted to expand his desires also to other parts, even to the Baltikum! Which
would put the EU into serious conflict. Honestly; not even the Nato is prepared
for real war! And I doubt if USA would protect it - being so short of money....:
So, to a 3rd world war, we could easily stumble into by underestimation
of EU and America of the willingness of Russia to reunify the whole former
“Sowiet Union”, what Mr. Putin is dreaming of anyway, or by misestimations of Mr.
Putin of the willingness of the EU and America to maintain their alliances. And
- If Mr. Putin had nothing more to loose – he could think of to try some more
actions by force!
By the way; The second world war had its predecessor and “surrogate war”
with the Spanish civil war, the first world war with the “Liman – crisis” where Germany
mixed itself up with the Turkish.. And now we have this “Ukraina - crisis” - beside others. All
those “local” wars not only served up to now to test the ability of new weapons, they
were - are - also effective as creators of a spirit of confrontation. Only to
the benefit of so called “falcons” or other people with “special interests” So
war is in the air! Literally!
I don`t know what could actually help to urge
the politicians into negotiations (without all their maximal desires to extend
themselves) - Least in Russia.
But something had to be done! I guess. And humiliating or trying to scoolmasterly punish Russia at the G20 was certainly the wrong way!
